When it comes to the 2020 Presidential Election, Americans agree on one thing at least – the vast majority say this election is the most important in their lifetimes. Half the country thinks a Biden presidency would threaten the nation’s economy and its property markets, while the other half believes another Trump presidency would cause more damage.
But a report from Cushman & Wakefield warned that the largest threat would be a disputed result that drags out well after Election Day. And the scenario is certainly possible, given the potential delays related to mail-in ballots.
A contested election, like the one our nation experienced between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000, could potentially spark social unrest around the nation.
“The financial markets appear to have priced in the likelihood that there will be some delay due to mail-in votes, but the process could be prolonged, and the longer it stretches out, the greater risk the election result debate could create more of the kind of unrest seen across the U.S. in 2020,” the report noted.
The Electoral College must cast its votes for president and vice president on the Monday after the second Wednesday of December, which is December 14, 2020. States have a little more than a month to count ballots and conduct recounts if necessary. If election results are still unclear or disputed on that date, and if the outcome cannot be decided by the Electoral College process, then the House of Representatives elects the President and the Senate elects the Vice President, per the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
A brief history lesson, courtesy of Cushman & Wakefield: Only once in U.S. history has Congress chosen the president, John Quincy Adams in 1825.
As long as the election is resolved within two to three weeks, Cushman & Wakefield anticipates “no material impact beyond a few shaky weeks in the stock market.”
For reference, during the one month “hanging chads” recount in 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 4% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 50 bps. The DJIA returned to pre-election levels a few weeks after Al Gore conceded to George Bush.
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