With Americans spending less on travel and entertainment outside the home, some of that money is shifting to retail cash registers, according to the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association.
Retail sales accelerated their rate of growth in September, marking the fourth straight month of year-over-year gains. Sales have been up both month-over-month and year-over-year each month since June following record monthly drops this spring.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants in order to focus on core retail – showed September was up 1.3% seasonally adjusted from August and up 12% unadjusted year-over-year. The year-over-year gain was more than double the 5.7% year-over-year increase in August, which was unchanged from July.
NRF’s numbers were up 9.2% unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average. Compared with March – the month the pandemic set in – September sales were up 5.6%.
The biggest monthly gain came at clothing stores, with sales up 11% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 12% unadjusted year-over-year. Electronics and appliance stores were the only major segment to post a decline.
Retail sales have been boosted by an improving labor market, a rebound in consumer confidence, and elevated savings, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “A significant number of people remain unemployed, but more are going back to work and that makes them confident about spending,” he noted.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported today that retail sales in September were up 1.9%, seasonally adjusted from August, and up 5.4% year-over-year. That was more than triple the 0.6% month-over-month increase and almost double the 2.8% year-over-year increase in August.
NRF is “optimistic about the prospects for a strong holiday season, as people want something to look forward to and bring joy to their lives,” according to NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. He acknowledged that it’s been a challenging year for everyone, but pointed out that retailers have been innovative and demonstrated that “we can keep the economy open and operating safely.”
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